Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AS 416 at 07:04, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 416 Alaska	LAS 07:04	PAE 09:43	14%	3%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Everett on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LAS 14:38 → SAN 15:57AS 2282 · flown by Horizon	3h 03m San Diego	SAN 19:00 → PAE 22:00AS 2189 · flown by Horizon	7h 22m	98%	65%
Alaska Details →	LAS 16:20 → SFO 17:58AS 634	2h 09m San Francisco	SFO 20:07 → PAE 22:12AS 2083 · flown by Horizon	5h 52m	94%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON