Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1827 at 08:06 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 1827 LAS 08:06 → PDX 10:30 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2062 LAS 13:00 → PDX 15:24 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1827 Southwest	LAS 08:06	PDX 10:30	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 1345 Alaska	LAS 07:22	PDX 09:44	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 596 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 08:21	PDX 10:44	15%	3%	0.7%	91%
F9 1103 Frontier	LAS 09:04	PDX 11:35	20%	7%	1.6%	no record
AS 1467 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 11:00	PDX 13:20	22%	4%	0.7%	90%worse than usual
AS 790 Alaska	LAS 20:36	PDX 22:56	33%	12%	0.8%	no record
AS 752 Alaska	LAS 16:00	PDX 18:22	34%	11%	0.8%	no record
AS 756 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 14:08	PDX 16:29	34%	7%	0.7%	80%worse than usual
AS 779 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 18:27	PDX 20:46	35%	10%	0.8%	82%worse than usual
WN 2297 Southwest	LAS 22:42	PDX 01:04	36%	12%	0.7%	no record
WN 2368 Southwest	LAS 18:50	PDX 21:14	36%	14%	0.7%	no record
WN 2062 Southwest	LAS 13:00	PDX 15:24	37%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON