tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2377 at 10:55 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 34%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2377 Southwest LAS 10:55 PIT 18:03 21% 5% 0.5% no record
WN 3038 Southwest LAS 18:52 PIT 01:56 34% 11% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:45 → MSP 05:51DL 2834 1h 38m Minneapolis MSP 07:29 → PIT 10:33DL 845 6h 48m 95% 88%
AmericanDetails → LAS 00:01 → ORD 05:39AA 3077 2h 33m Chicago ORD 08:12 → PIT 10:52AA 4478 · flown by Republic 7h 51m 96% 87%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 33m Denver DEN 10:05 → PIT 15:16UA 1308 6h 46m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19DL 2674 2h 26m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → PIT 16:30DL 1188 7h 30m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → LAS 06:08 → LAX 07:23UA 2039 1h 37m Los Angeles LAX 09:00 → PIT 16:51UA 2039 7h 43m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:04 → ORD 05:46UA 2102 1h 29m Chicago ORD 07:15 → PIT 09:58UA 1285 6h 54m 90% 82%
DeltaDetails → LAS 13:12 → ATL 20:24DL 466 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 23:04 → PIT 00:50 +1DL 1351 8h 38m 94% 81%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755 1h 08m Atlanta ATL 14:08 → PIT 15:50DL 1353 6h 50m 93% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → LAS 13:12 → ATL 20:24DL 466 50m Atlanta ATL 21:14 → PIT 23:00DL 2583 6h 48m 52% 42%
UnitedDetails → LAS 13:36 → DEN 16:40UA 1323 1h 10m Denver DEN 17:50 → PIT 22:57UA 2155 6h 21m 66% 40%
UnitedDetails → LAS 14:25 → ORD 20:23UA 706 57m Chicago ORD 21:20 → PIT 23:59UA 3464 · flown by Republic 6h 34m 35% 23%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON