tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1283 at 08:25 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 47%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1283 Southwest LAS 08:25 PSP 09:34 13% 4% 0.6% no record
WN 2627 Southwest LAS 22:35 PSP 23:43 47% 18% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Palm Springs on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19DL 2674 2h 26m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → PSP 11:41DL 4042 · flown by SkyWest 5h 41m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → LAS 10:00 → SLC 12:29DL 1698 3h 11m Salt Lake City SLC 15:40 → PSP 16:33DL 3852 · flown by SkyWest 6h 33m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 2h 40m Denver DEN 11:12 → PSP 12:29UA 687 6h 59m 100% 76%
UnitedDetails → LAS 06:00 → SFO 07:35UA 643 51m San Francisco SFO 08:26 → PSP 10:03UA 717 4h 03m 86% 75%
UnitedDetails → LAS 13:34 → SFO 15:16UA 1799 3h 22m San Francisco SFO 18:38 → PSP 20:26UA 5705 · flown by SkyWest 6h 52m 97% 72%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 06:02 → SEA 08:45AS 701 1h 41m Seattle SEA 10:26 → PSP 13:08AS 457 7h 06m 96% 71%
AmericanDetails → LAS 06:45 → PHX 08:00AA 1808 2h 38m Phoenix PHX 10:38 → PSP 11:55AA 1884 5h 10m 96% 70%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 09:42 → SEA 12:16AS 676 2h 11m Seattle SEA 14:27 → PSP 17:09AS 322 7h 27m 95% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → LAS 14:08 → PDX 16:29AS 756 1h 07m Portland PDX 17:36 → PSP 20:14AS 3022 · flown by SkyWest 6h 06m 73% 55%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 17:07 → SEA 19:40AS 749 49m Seattle SEA 20:29 → PSP 22:50AS 3285 · flown by SkyWest 5h 43m 23% 15%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON