tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:05, is the safest bet: 53% chance of reaching Raleigh/Durham on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 26% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 822 Delta Flight history → LAS 22:24 RDU 05:45 28% 6% 0.8% 90%worse than usual
WN 4297 Southwest LAS 12:20 RDU 19:43 35% 9% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:52 → IAH 06:00UA 2009 2h 15m Houston IAH 08:15 → RDU 12:02UA 6148 · flown by Mesa 8h 10m 100% 89%
AmericanDetails → LAS 00:01 → ORD 05:39AA 3077 2h 39m Chicago ORD 08:18 → RDU 11:38AA 4354 · flown by Republic 8h 37m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 17m Denver DEN 09:49 → RDU 15:16UA 2269 6h 46m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:07 → EWR 07:51UA 406 3h 21m Newark EWR 11:12 → RDU 12:57UA 1410 9h 50m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:45 → MSP 05:51DL 2834 1h 09m Minneapolis MSP 07:00 → RDU 10:31DL 2783 6h 46m 91% 83%
DeltaDetails → LAS 05:50 → DTW 12:44DL 864 3h 18m Detroit DTW 16:02 → RDU 17:47DL 1407 8h 57m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755 1h 52m Atlanta ATL 14:52 → RDU 16:20DL 1550 7h 20m 95% 80%
FrontierDetails → LAS 00:59 → DFW 05:43F9 1650 2h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:35 → RDU 12:36F9 3330 8h 37m 96% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LAS 14:30 → CLT 22:04AA 2470 53m Charlotte CLT 22:57 → RDU 23:58AA 494 6h 28m 43% 28%
AmericanDetails → LAS 14:02 → DFW 19:03AA 777 1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:04 → RDU 23:48AA 542 6h 46m 53% 27%
UnitedDetails → LAS 16:15 → ORD 22:13UA 2320 47m Chicago ORD 23:00 → RDU 01:55 +1UA 1989 6h 40m 26% 15%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON