Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1842 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 1842 LAS 06:15 → RNO 07:43 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 551 LAS 14:07 → RNO 15:35 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1842 Southwest	LAS 06:15	RNO 07:43	5%	1%	1.0%	no record
WN 635 Southwest	LAS 08:01	RNO 09:29	11%	2%	1.0%	no record
F9 4247 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 06:33	RNO 08:08	14%	4%	1.8%	75%
WN 1581 Southwest	LAS 10:41	RNO 12:09	18%	3%	1.1%	no record
WN 4610 Southwest	LAS 21:58	RNO 23:26	33%	11%	0.8%	no record
F9 4241 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 16:41	RNO 18:15	35%	15%	1.9%	71%
WN 2385 Southwest	LAS 15:07	RNO 16:36	36%	8%	1.0%	no record
WN 2389 Southwest	LAS 20:33	RNO 22:01	37%	13%	1.0%	no record
WN 3139 Southwest	LAS 22:58	RNO 00:26	37%	10%	1.0%	no record
WN 3072 Southwest	LAS 19:31	RNO 20:59	39%	12%	0.9%	no record
WN 3247 Southwest	LAS 16:27	RNO 17:55	40%	10%	1.1%	no record
WN 551 Southwest	LAS 14:07	RNO 15:35	40%	7%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON