Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 21 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2473 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 47–56%.

Safest bet that day WN 2473 LAS 05:45 → SAN 07:03 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 498 LAS 14:35 → SAN 15:53 · 57% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 2473 Southwest	LAS 05:45	SAN 07:03	7%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 2392 Southwest	LAS 06:35	SAN 07:53	11%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 233 Southwest	LAS 08:15	SAN 09:33	26%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 2394 Southwest	LAS 09:15	SAN 10:33	27%	5%	0.8%	no record
OO 3324 SkyWest	LAS 08:30	SAN 09:51	36%	11%	0.8%	no record
WN 1776 Southwest	LAS 10:05	SAN 11:24	36%	7%	0.8%	no record
DL 3741 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAS 12:57	SAN 14:13	41%	14%	0.9%	79%worse than usual
F9 1469 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 20:07	SAN 21:31	47%	21%	1.3%	67%worse than usual
WN 4488 Southwest	LAS 17:40	SAN 18:58	48%	20%	0.8%	no record
WN 1590 Southwest	LAS 12:40	SAN 13:58	49%	11%	0.8%	no record
WN 1188 Southwest	LAS 20:05	SAN 21:23	53%	20%	0.9%	no record
WN 1204 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 16:42	SAN 18:01	54%	21%	0.9%	80%worse than usual
WN 3622 Southwest	LAS 13:55	SAN 15:13	55%	13%	0.9%	no record
WN 1883 Southwest	LAS 22:30	SAN 23:48	56%	19%	0.9%	no record
WN 498 Southwest	LAS 14:35	SAN 15:53	57%	18%	0.9%	no record
AS 2252 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 06:50	SAN 08:04	24%	4%	3.8%	76%
AS 2416 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 11:11	SAN 12:29	35%	4%	4.7%	65%
AS 2253 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 07:59	SAN 09:15	56%	8%	2.0%	44%
AS 2282 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 14:38	SAN 15:57	68%	30%	2.2%	32%
AS 2251 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 18:19	SAN 19:36	76%	33%	9.8%	24%
AS 2219 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 19:21	SAN 20:39	96%	59%	10.0%	4%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON