Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1775 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 1775 LAS 05:05 → SAT 09:49 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1035 LAS 14:45 → SAT 19:29 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1775 Southwest	LAS 05:05	SAT 09:49	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2845 Southwest	LAS 10:20	SAT 15:04	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
F9 3420 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 06:54	SAT 11:44	17%	6%	0.8%	74%
WN 3369 Southwest	LAS 21:20	SAT 02:04	30%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 3643 Southwest	LAS 19:20	SAT 00:04	33%	10%	0.7%	no record
WN 1035 Southwest	LAS 14:45	SAT 19:29	37%	11%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON