tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 1962 at 18:45, with a 44% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1962 Southwest LAS 18:45 SDF 01:25 44% 13% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:52 → IAH 06:00UA 2009 2h 30m Houston IAH 08:30 → SDF 11:54UA 3990 · flown by Mesa 8h 02m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → LAS 09:59 → DTW 16:58DL 470 2h 47m Detroit DTW 19:45 → SDF 21:12DL 5832 · flown by Republic 8h 13m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 18m Denver DEN 09:50 → SDF 14:34UA 8179 6h 04m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → LAS 10:25 → IAH 15:40UA 1711 3h 09m Houston IAH 18:49 → SDF 22:15UA 4052 · flown by Mesa 8h 50m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:19 → MSP 11:22DL 1282 1h 27m Minneapolis MSP 12:49 → SDF 15:47DL 4007 · flown by SkyWest 6h 28m 94% 79%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755 1h 22m Atlanta ATL 14:22 → SDF 15:42DL 3195 6h 42m 94% 79%
AmericanDetails → LAS 07:13 → DFW 12:06AA 617 2h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:55 → SDF 18:03AA 3629 · flown by Envoy 7h 50m 96% 77%
DeltaDetails → LAS 13:12 → ATL 20:24DL 466 2h 38m Atlanta ATL 23:02 → SDF 00:26 +1DL 2624 8h 14m 94% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LAS 14:30 → CLT 22:04AA 2470 58m Charlotte CLT 23:02 → SDF 00:34 +1AA 671 7h 04m 53% 36%
AmericanDetails → LAS 12:33 → DFW 17:30AA 1482 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:27 → SDF 21:48AA 2212 6h 15m 55% 29%
UnitedDetails → LAS 14:25 → ORD 20:23UA 706 1h 02m Chicago ORD 21:25 → SDF 23:59UA 3659 · flown by Republic 6h 34m 45% 25%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON