Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 18 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2844 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 39–56%.

Safest bet that day DL 2844 LAS 06:10 → SEA 08:45 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 2850 LAS 16:40 → SEA 19:14 · 56% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2844 Delta Flight history →	LAS 06:10	SEA 08:45	11%	3%	0.8%	96%
AS 701 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 06:02	SEA 08:45	12%	3%	0.8%	96%
AS 741 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 06:02	SEA 08:37	18%	3%	0.8%	87%
DL 2922 Delta Flight history →	LAS 11:09	SEA 14:00	19%	4%	0.9%	92%worse than usual
F9 2407 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 07:45	SEA 10:39	24%	6%	1.2%	80%
DL 2905 Delta Flight history →	LAS 13:31	SEA 16:16	30%	5%	0.9%	89%worse than usual
AS 785 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 11:30	SEA 14:14	32%	5%	1.1%	85%worse than usual
AS 676 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 09:42	SEA 12:16	34%	5%	0.8%	77%worse than usual
DL 2880 Delta Flight history →	LAS 14:40	SEA 17:21	36%	8%	0.9%	84%worse than usual
WN 2254 Southwest	LAS 08:00	SEA 10:36	36%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 2956 Delta Flight history →	LAS 19:06	SEA 21:49	39%	9%	1.0%	72%worse than usual
WN 269 Southwest	LAS 22:52	SEA 01:45	40%	14%	0.7%	no record
AS 691 Alaska	LAS 22:30	SEA 00:54	45%	10%	1.1%	no record
AS 738 Alaska	LAS 15:56	SEA 18:29	45%	14%	1.1%	no record
AS 629 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 14:06	SEA 16:40	47%	9%	1.0%	89%worse than usual
AS 749 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 17:07	SEA 19:40	48%	11%	1.1%	81%worse than usual
AS 552 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 19:09	SEA 21:41	54%	12%	1.0%	83%worse than usual
WN 2850 Southwest	LAS 16:40	SEA 19:14	56%	18%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON