tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Bush, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Springfield on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 53% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Springfield on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Springfield is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAS 06:00 → IAH 11:11UA 2608 1h 14m Houston IAH 12:25 → SGF 14:15UA 4569 · flown by GoJet 6h 15m 97% 84%
AmericanDetails → LAS 05:57 → DFW 10:44AA 2932 1h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:23 → SGF 13:53AA 3494 · flown by Envoy 5h 56m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → LAS 09:43 → DFW 14:28AA 2797 2h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:45 → SGF 18:14AA 4311 · flown by Envoy 6h 31m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 22m Denver DEN 09:54 → SGF 12:52UA 5481 · flown by SkyWest 5h 22m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → LAS 07:13 → DFW 12:06AA 617 2h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:20 → SGF 15:55AA 3556 · flown by Envoy 6h 42m 95% 78%
AmericanDetails → LAS 12:33 → DFW 17:30AA 1482 2h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:23 → SGF 21:54AA 4092 · flown by Envoy 7h 21m 96% 76%
AmericanDetails → LAS 10:11 → DFW 15:08AA 1584 3h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:01 → SGF 20:31AA 3671 · flown by Envoy 8h 20m 97% 75%
UnitedDetails → LAS 12:46 → ORD 18:29UA 314 3h 01m Chicago ORD 21:30 → SGF 23:27UA 4451 · flown by GoJet 8h 41m 98% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → LAS 13:12 → ATL 20:24DL 466 52m Atlanta ATL 21:16 → SGF 22:10DL 1105 6h 58m 55% 41%
UnitedDetails → LAS 14:25 → ORD 20:23UA 706 1h 07m Chicago ORD 21:30 → SGF 23:27UA 4451 · flown by GoJet 7h 02m 54% 41%
UnitedDetails → LAS 13:36 → DEN 16:40UA 1323 58m Denver DEN 17:38 → SGF 20:43UA 5886 · flown by SkyWest 5h 07m 53% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON