Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2413 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 2413 LAS 05:50 → SJC 07:30 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2437 LAS 22:11 → SJC 23:50 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2413 Southwest	LAS 05:50	SJC 07:30	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2414 Southwest	LAS 08:06	SJC 09:45	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2435 Southwest	LAS 09:06	SJC 10:45	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2436 Southwest	LAS 10:06	SJC 11:45	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
F9 4103 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 11:39	SJC 13:17	26%	10%	0.9%	78%
WN 2415 Southwest	LAS 21:16	SJC 22:55	32%	13%	0.6%	no record
WN 1692 Southwest	LAS 14:07	SJC 15:47	32%	9%	0.6%	no record
F9 1589 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 20:12	SJC 21:59	32%	17%	1.0%	100%worse than usual
WN 2417 Southwest	LAS 18:59	SJC 20:38	34%	14%	0.6%	no record
WN 3740 Southwest	LAS 16:12	SJC 17:52	34%	13%	0.6%	no record
WN 2349 Southwest	LAS 17:39	SJC 19:18	35%	14%	0.6%	no record
WN 2437 Southwest	LAS 22:11	SJC 23:50	37%	14%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON