Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2674 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–42%.

Safest bet that day DL 2674 LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest F9 4696 LAS 16:42 → SLC 19:16 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2674 Delta Flight history →	LAS 06:00	SLC 08:19	7%	3%	0.6%	96%
WN 3868 Southwest	LAS 08:50	SLC 11:17	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 3016 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 10:22	SLC 12:56	14%	8%	1.1%	93%
DL 1698 Delta Flight history →	LAS 10:00	SLC 12:29	15%	4%	0.6%	89%
DL 1659 Delta Flight history →	LAS 13:15	SLC 15:44	27%	7%	0.7%	84%worse than usual
DL 1672 Delta Flight history →	LAS 17:00	SLC 19:25	37%	11%	1.9%	77%worse than usual
WN 2966 Southwest	LAS 18:10	SLC 20:37	38%	13%	1.1%	no record
DL 627 Delta	LAS 19:50	SLC 22:14	39%	15%	1.3%	no record
WN 1693 Southwest	LAS 22:42	SLC 01:07	40%	15%	0.8%	no record
WN 1939 Southwest	LAS 14:15	SLC 16:42	40%	11%	0.7%	no record
F9 4696 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 16:42	SLC 19:16	42%	16%	3.0%	88%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON