Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2426 at 05:41 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–44%.

Safest bet that day WN 2426 LAS 05:41 → SMF 07:21 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2448 LAS 16:48 → SMF 18:27 · 44% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2426 Southwest	LAS 05:41	SMF 07:21	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 843 Southwest	LAS 08:05	SMF 09:44	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
F9 4779 Frontier	LAS 06:05	SMF 07:51	13%	4%	0.9%	no record
WN 1941 Southwest	LAS 09:32	SMF 11:11	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2180 Southwest	LAS 10:40	SMF 12:19	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2429 Southwest	LAS 12:35	SMF 14:14	28%	7%	0.6%	no record
F9 4143 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 17:08	SMF 18:54	37%	18%	1.0%	90%worse than usual
WN 4529 Southwest	LAS 20:29	SMF 22:10	40%	15%	0.7%	no record
WN 2423 Southwest	LAS 21:38	SMF 23:16	41%	13%	0.7%	no record
WN 2421 Southwest	LAS 20:48	SMF 22:26	41%	15%	0.7%	no record
WN 2181 Southwest	LAS 14:48	SMF 16:27	41%	12%	0.7%	no record
WN 2126 Southwest	LAS 22:38	SMF 00:16	42%	11%	0.7%	no record
WN 2410 Southwest	LAS 16:05	SMF 17:42	43%	13%	0.7%	no record
WN 2448 Southwest	LAS 16:48	SMF 18:27	44%	13%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON