Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 344 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–42%.

Safest bet that day WN 344 LAS 07:35 → SNA 08:48 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4220 LAS 13:17 → SNA 14:29 · 45% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 344 Southwest	LAS 07:35	SNA 08:48	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1593 Southwest	LAS 08:33	SNA 09:46	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 4078 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAS 08:45	SNA 10:02	19%	6%	0.7%	88%
WN 4292 Southwest	LAS 10:23	SNA 11:35	21%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 4179 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAS 18:01	SNA 19:15	26%	9%	0.8%	89%worse than usual
WN 2440 Southwest	LAS 20:57	SNA 22:10	33%	7%	0.7%	no record
WN 3913 Southwest	LAS 19:49	SNA 21:02	37%	10%	0.7%	no record
F9 3737 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 15:53	SNA 17:12	38%	16%	0.8%	80%worse than usual
WN 4543 Southwest	LAS 15:49	SNA 17:01	41%	12%	0.7%	no record
WN 460 Southwest	LAS 17:31	SNA 18:43	42%	12%	0.7%	no record
WN 4220 Southwest	LAS 13:17	SNA 14:29	45%	9%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON