Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4693 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 40%.

Safest bet that day WN 4693 LAS 05:10 → STL 10:26 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1152 LAS 13:40 → STL 18:54 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4693 Southwest	LAS 05:10	STL 10:26	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1708 Southwest	LAS 07:10	STL 12:24	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
F9 3108 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 06:00	STL 11:15	15%	6%	1.3%	81%
WN 1828 Southwest	LAS 11:16	STL 16:30	31%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 3863 Southwest	LAS 18:10	STL 23:22	40%	14%	0.6%	no record
WN 4890 Southwest	LAS 19:25	STL 00:38	40%	13%	0.6%	no record
WN 1152 Southwest	LAS 13:40	STL 18:54	41%	10%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON