tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: American via DFW, leaving 06:53, is the safest bet: 59% chance of reaching Tampa on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 39% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1634 Southwest LAS 09:20 TPA 16:43 23% 4% 0.7% no record
WN 4600 Southwest LAS 16:40 TPA 00:01 46% 13% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:52 → IAH 06:00UA 2009 1h 25m Houston IAH 07:25 → TPA 10:45UA 1353 6h 53m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:45 → MSP 05:51DL 2834 1h 24m Minneapolis MSP 07:15 → TPA 11:26DL 2301 7h 41m 94% 84%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:04 → ORD 05:46UA 2102 1h 43m Chicago ORD 07:29 → TPA 11:22UA 2326 8h 18m 93% 83%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:09 → IAD 07:58UA 284 1h 02m Dulles IAD 09:00 → TPA 11:32UA 683 8h 23m 89% 80%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 08m Denver DEN 09:40 → TPA 15:14UA 1010 6h 44m 95% 80%
UnitedDetails → LAS 06:08 → LAX 07:23UA 2039 2h 16m Los Angeles LAX 09:39 → TPA 17:40UA 392 8h 32m 100% 77%
DeltaDetails → LAS 05:50 → DTW 12:44DL 864 1h 23m Detroit DTW 14:07 → TPA 16:45DL 1243 7h 55m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:19 → MSP 11:22DL 1282 1h 57m Minneapolis MSP 13:19 → TPA 17:32DL 2264 8h 13m 95% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LAS 12:33 → DFW 17:30AA 1482 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:25 → TPA 22:13AA 2256 6h 40m 51% 25%
AmericanDetails → LAS 09:43 → DFW 14:28AA 2797 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:14 → TPA 19:03AA 2512 6h 20m 44% 25%
FrontierDetails → LAS 14:53 → DEN 18:00F9 3540 57m Denver DEN 18:57 → TPA 00:34 +1F9 2746 6h 41m 39% 20%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON