tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 28–33% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1568 Southwest LAS 12:50 TUL 17:35 28% 5% 0.7% no record
WN 1783 Southwest LAS 20:15 TUL 00:58 33% 10% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 32m Denver DEN 10:04 → TUL 12:59UA 5315 · flown by SkyWest 5h 29m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:04 → ORD 05:46UA 2102 2h 59m Chicago ORD 08:45 → TUL 11:03UA 5795 · flown by SkyWest 8h 59m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → LAS 00:01 → ORD 05:39AA 3077 2h 50m Chicago ORD 08:29 → TUL 10:36AA 4155 · flown by Envoy 8h 35m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → LAS 06:00 → IAH 11:11UA 2608 3h 24m Houston IAH 14:35 → TUL 16:15UA 4239 · flown by CommuteAir 8h 15m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → LAS 10:25 → IAH 15:40UA 1711 50m Houston IAH 16:30 → TUL 18:08UA 6171 · flown by Mesa 5h 43m 78% 77%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 14:55 → TUL 15:53DL 1186 7h 53m 95% 76%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 06:02 → SEA 08:45AS 701 3h 07m Seattle SEA 11:52 → TUL 17:32AS 2217 · flown by Horizon 9h 30m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → LAS 11:41 → ATL 18:47DL 748 3h 31m Atlanta ATL 22:18 → TUL 23:19DL 2043 9h 38m 98% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LAS 15:40 → IAH 20:55UA 2741 47m Houston IAH 21:42 → TUL 23:15UA 6179 · flown by Mesa 5h 35m 49% 41%
AmericanDetails → LAS 16:43 → DFW 21:28AA 1380 1h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:38 → TUL 23:47AA 531 5h 04m 67% 37%
UnitedDetails → LAS 13:36 → DEN 16:40UA 1323 57m Denver DEN 17:37 → TUL 20:27UA 1937 4h 51m 51% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON