Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4399 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 4399 LAS 07:45 → TUS 09:13 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2511 LAS 22:45 → TUS 00:13 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4399 Southwest	LAS 07:45	TUS 09:13	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 951 Southwest	LAS 13:05	TUS 14:33	34%	7%	0.7%	no record
WN 2453 Southwest	LAS 18:20	TUS 19:48	35%	16%	0.7%	no record
WN 2511 Southwest	LAS 22:45	TUS 00:13	36%	12%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON