Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3808 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 3808 LAX 07:10 → ABQ 10:15 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1322 LAX 17:39 → ABQ 20:44 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3808 Southwest	LAX 07:10	ABQ 10:15	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
OO 4897 SkyWest	LAX 08:58	ABQ 12:05	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 130 SkyWest	LAX 08:38	ABQ 11:47	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 6515 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 23:40	ABQ 02:47	17%	5%	0.6%	81%
DL 4091 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 15:00	ABQ 18:07	18%	7%	0.5%	85%
DL 4098 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 20:47	ABQ 23:48	19%	6%	0.6%	90%
OO 296 SkyWest	LAX 20:42	ABQ 23:48	19%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 3991 Southwest	LAX 12:35	ABQ 15:40	27%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 1322 Southwest	LAX 17:39	ABQ 20:44	36%	12%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON