Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 2628 at 10:35, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 2628 United	LAX 10:35	ACV 12:29	24%	10%	1.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Arcata/Eureka on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	LAX 17:10 → SFO 18:38UA 233	3h 57m San Francisco	SFO 22:35 → ACV 23:59UA 4695 · flown by SkyWest	6h 49m	99%	74%
United Details →	LAX 14:11 → SFO 15:38UA 469	3h 05m San Francisco	SFO 18:43 → ACV 20:01UA 2022	5h 50m	96%	68%
United Details →	LAX 07:25 → SFO 08:58UA 1372	1h 17m San Francisco	SFO 10:15 → ACV 11:42UA 4708 · flown by SkyWest	4h 17m	83%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	LAX 16:14 → SFO 17:42UA 2019	1h 01m San Francisco	SFO 18:43 → ACV 20:01UA 2022	3h 47m	67%	48%
United Details →	LAX 20:10 → SFO 21:38UA 1195	57m San Francisco	SFO 22:35 → ACV 23:59UA 4695 · flown by SkyWest	3h 49m	50%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON