tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Portland, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 43 Alaska LAX 07:13 ANC 11:42 14% 4% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 1 h behind Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → LAX 07:00 → PDX 09:21AS 668 1h 09m Portland PDX 10:30 → ANC 13:22AS 775 7h 22m 93% 74%
DeltaDetails → LAX 15:22 → MSP 20:59DL 2198 1h 14m Minneapolis MSP 22:13 → ANC 00:59 +1DL 411 10h 37m 88% 71%
DeltaDetails → LAX 07:15 → SEA 10:00DL 2980 3h 40m Seattle SEA 13:40 → ANC 16:25DL 928 10h 10m 97% 71%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 11:31 → SEA 14:14AS 798 2h 37m Seattle SEA 16:51 → ANC 19:30AS 85 8h 59m 96% 70%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 08:10 → SEA 10:54AS 495 3h 08m Seattle SEA 14:02 → ANC 16:32AS 1381 9h 22m 100% 69%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413 1h 20m Minneapolis MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00DL 377 10h 45m 92% 69%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 07:00 → SEA 09:49AS 748 2h 02m Seattle SEA 11:51 → ANC 14:34AS 1333 8h 34m 98% 69%
AmericanDetails → LAX 07:00 → DFW 12:18AA 2746 2h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:08 → ANC 19:09AA 399 13h 09m 98% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → LAX 14:00 → SEA 16:40DL 2606 50m Seattle SEA 17:30 → ANC 20:14DL 2367 7h 14m 62% 45%
DeltaDetails → LAX 17:45 → SEA 20:27DL 2640 53m Seattle SEA 21:20 → ANC 23:58DL 936 7h 13m 60% 44%
UnitedDetails → LAX 14:30 → DEN 18:00UA 2758 58m Denver DEN 18:58 → ANC 22:27UA 280 8h 57m 61% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON