Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 390 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 390 LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 4316 LAX 12:42 → ATL 20:20 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 390 Delta Flight history →	LAX 06:00	ATL 13:35	11%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 515 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:00	ATL 14:35	14%	4%	0.7%	84%
DL 579 Delta	LAX 00:07	ATL 07:25	18%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 782 Delta Flight history →	LAX 08:05	ATL 15:41	21%	5%	0.7%	82%
DL 528 Delta Flight history →	LAX 11:00	ATL 18:37	25%	5%	0.7%	86%worse than usual
DL 715 Delta Flight history →	LAX 14:15	ATL 21:59	25%	7%	0.7%	82%
DL 471 Delta Flight history →	LAX 16:40	ATL 00:30	27%	6%	0.7%	85%worse than usual
DL 483 Delta	LAX 16:08	ATL 23:30	27%	7%	0.7%	no record
DL 395 Delta Flight history →	LAX 13:15	ATL 20:56	27%	6%	0.7%	80%
DL 329 Delta	LAX 16:07	ATL 23:25	27%	7%	0.7%	no record
DL 1521 Delta	LAX 13:29	ATL 20:52	29%	7%	0.7%	no record
DL 783 Delta Flight history →	LAX 21:24	ATL 05:00	29%	5%	0.7%	82%worse than usual
DL 899 Delta Flight history →	LAX 22:40	ATL 06:10	30%	4%	0.7%	79%
DL 8891 Delta	LAX 22:07	ATL 05:33	30%	5%	0.7%	no record
F9 3216 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 00:01	ATL 07:37	34%	10%	1.0%	65%
AA 753 American Flight history →	LAX 09:45	ATL 17:15	38%	11%	0.6%	61%
F9 4316 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 12:42	ATL 20:20	41%	16%	1.1%	67%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAX 13:50 → DFW 19:04DL 948	1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:05 → ATL 23:15DL 1827	6h 25m	77%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON