Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2457 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–41%.

Safest bet that day WN 2457 LAX 05:30 → AUS 10:34 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3539 LAX 19:45 → AUS 00:52 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2457 Southwest	LAX 05:30	AUS 10:34	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 946 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:35	AUS 12:38	14%	4%	0.8%	88%
UA 1625 United	LAX 08:12	AUS 13:20	16%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 1496 United	LAX 10:47	AUS 15:55	23%	10%	0.6%	no record
OO 6243 SkyWest	LAX 09:11	AUS 14:21	23%	9%	0.6%	no record
OO 4945 SkyWest	LAX 18:40	AUS 23:51	24%	9%	0.6%	no record
DL 986 Delta Flight history →	LAX 10:05	AUS 15:20	25%	6%	0.7%	87%worse than usual
UA 1001 United	LAX 16:58	AUS 22:15	25%	12%	0.6%	no record
DL 622 Delta Flight history →	LAX 15:55	AUS 20:58	28%	9%	0.7%	78%
DL 692 Delta Flight history →	LAX 18:32	AUS 23:29	31%	10%	0.7%	73%
WN 2458 Southwest	LAX 11:20	AUS 16:26	33%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 2118 American Flight history →	LAX 15:38	AUS 20:48	38%	14%	0.6%	75%worse than usual
WN 3539 Southwest	LAX 19:45	AUS 00:52	41%	14%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON