Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 639 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 639 LAX 06:40 → BOS 15:15 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 382 LAX 15:09 → BOS 23:45 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 639 Delta Flight history →	LAX 06:40	BOS 15:15	9%	3%	0.7%	83%
AA 2453 American Flight history →	LAX 00:00	BOS 08:26	16%	4%	0.7%	81%
UA 2210 United Flight history →	LAX 23:04	BOS 07:45	17%	4%	0.7%	91%
UA 1783 United Flight history →	LAX 08:45	BOS 17:30	19%	8%	0.7%	83%
UA 1221 United	LAX 16:23	BOS 01:17	20%	8%	0.7%	no record
B6 288 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 08:00	BOS 16:40	20%	7%	0.7%	70%
DL 507 Delta Flight history →	LAX 21:00	BOS 05:30	21%	6%	0.7%	85%
AA 12 American Flight history →	LAX 08:00	BOS 16:38	21%	6%	0.7%	78%
DL 2166 Delta Flight history →	LAX 15:20	BOS 23:51	24%	9%	0.7%	78%
DL 437 Delta Flight history →	LAX 10:45	BOS 19:20	27%	8%	0.6%	71%
B6 988 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 09:59	BOS 18:42	28%	8%	0.7%	81%
B6 188 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 20:23	BOS 04:59	30%	11%	0.7%	74%
B6 2088 JetBlue	LAX 12:42	BOS 21:15	33%	11%	0.7%	no record
B6 1488 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 22:21	BOS 06:58	33%	8%	0.7%	79%worse than usual
AA 382 American Flight history →	LAX 15:09	BOS 23:45	34%	10%	0.7%	79%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906	1h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:50 → BOS 16:36DL 657	8h 01m	95%	78%
Delta Details →	LAX 00:14 → JFK 08:20DL 915	1h 30m New York	JFK 09:50 → BOS 11:14DL 5733 · flown by Republic	8h 00m	93%	78%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792	58m Minneapolis	MSP 12:50 → BOS 16:50DL 2558	7h 35m	91%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON