tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Buffalo on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 42% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Buffalo is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792 3h 30m Minneapolis MSP 15:22 → BUF 18:24DL 1749 9h 09m 100% 80%
AmericanDetails → LAX 10:25 → PHL 18:57AA 738 3h 23m Philadelphia PHL 22:20 → BUF 23:53AA 5911 · flown by Piedmont 10h 28m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:50 → DTW 19:14DL 802 3h 36m Detroit DTW 22:50 → BUF 23:58DL 978 9h 08m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 16:33 → BUF 18:41DL 2050 9h 41m 98% 72%
AmericanDetails → LAX 09:24 → CLT 17:14AA 3175 3h 51m Charlotte CLT 21:05 → BUF 22:51AA 703 10h 27m 96% 70%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:18 → JFK 19:21DL 972 3h 19m New York JFK 22:40 → BUF 00:38 +1DL 5264 · flown by Endeavor 10h 20m 92% 69%
JetBlueDetails → LAX 06:00 → JFK 14:30B6 124 2h 16m New York JFK 16:46 → BUF 18:26B6 1202 9h 26m 99% 68%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:00 → ATL 18:37DL 528 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 21:52 → BUF 23:59DL 2334 9h 59m 96% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → LAX 08:05 → ATL 15:41DL 782 52m Atlanta ATL 16:33 → BUF 18:41DL 2050 7h 36m 66% 49%
DeltaDetails → LAX 13:15 → ATL 20:56DL 395 56m Atlanta ATL 21:52 → BUF 23:59DL 2334 7h 44m 68% 48%
UnitedDetails → LAX 10:45 → ORD 17:04UA 2113 53m Chicago ORD 17:57 → BUF 20:35UA 1335 6h 50m 42% 19%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON