Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2533 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 2533 LAX 05:20 → BWI 13:20 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4276 LAX 13:25 → BWI 21:27 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2533 Southwest	LAX 05:20	BWI 13:20	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1605 United Flight history →	LAX 23:08	BWI 07:17	18%	5%	0.7%	91%
UA 1093 United Flight history →	LAX 09:33	BWI 17:43	19%	6%	0.6%	90%
WN 2477 Southwest	LAX 21:50	BWI 05:49	34%	7%	0.9%	no record
WN 4276 Southwest	LAX 13:25	BWI 21:27	35%	10%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	LAX 00:41 → DFW 05:51AA 971	1h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:00 → BWI 11:04AA 2314	7h 23m	84%	71%
Delta Details →	LAX 08:05 → MSP 13:42DL 799	1h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 14:45 → BWI 18:19DL 2565	7h 14m	86%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON