Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 2212 at 12:50, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 2212 United Flight history →	LAX 12:50	BZN 16:24	15%	5%	0.7%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LAX 07:00 → PDX 09:21AS 668	1h 09m Portland	PDX 10:30 → BZN 13:10AS 2022 · flown by Horizon	5h 10m	93%	84%
Delta Details →	LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906	1h 25m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:55 → BZN 11:17DL 1971	4h 42m	96%	81%
United Details →	LAX 07:00 → DEN 10:29UA 703	1h 23m Denver	DEN 11:52 → BZN 13:49UA 741	5h 49m	95%	79%
Delta Details →	LAX 07:15 → SEA 10:00DL 2980	2h 17m Seattle	SEA 12:17 → BZN 15:14DL 4104 · flown by SkyWest	6h 59m	95%	76%
Delta Details →	LAX 17:05 → SLC 19:58DL 2311	3h 07m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046	6h 18m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	LAX 11:41 → SLC 14:30DL 1194	2h 50m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest	6h 03m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	LAX 15:22 → MSP 20:59DL 2198	1h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 22:23 → BZN 23:52DL 2954	7h 30m	92%	75%
Delta Details →	LAX 14:00 → SEA 16:40DL 2606	3h 19m Seattle	SEA 19:59 → BZN 22:49DL 4039 · flown by SkyWest	7h 49m	96%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	LAX 19:15 → SLC 22:04DL 1483	1h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046	4h 08m	72%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON