tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 13:10, is the safest bet: 54% chance of reaching Columbus on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 34% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2251 United LAX 10:24 CMH 18:08 24% 9% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:50 → DTW 19:14DL 802 3h 36m Detroit DTW 22:50 → CMH 23:56DL 5634 · flown by Republic 9h 06m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → LAX 10:25 → PHL 18:57AA 738 2h 53m Philadelphia PHL 21:50 → CMH 23:41AA 4361 · flown by Republic 10h 16m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → LAX 09:45 → DTW 17:08DL 494 2h 46m Detroit DTW 19:54 → CMH 21:02DL 5838 · flown by Republic 8h 17m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:08 → PHL 08:34AA 2010 1h 54m Philadelphia PHL 10:28 → CMH 12:08AA 2253 9h 00m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → LAX 10:39 → IAD 18:48UA 2667 3h 50m Dulles IAD 22:38 → CMH 00:03 +1UA 3646 · flown by Republic 10h 24m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → LAX 05:45 → IAH 11:12UA 654 1h 03m Houston IAH 12:15 → CMH 16:05UA 4072 · flown by Mesa 7h 20m 95% 84%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792 3h 43m Minneapolis MSP 15:35 → CMH 18:28DL 2113 9h 13m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → LAX 00:14 → JFK 08:20DL 915 1h 30m New York JFK 09:50 → CMH 11:48DL 5649 · flown by Republic 8h 34m 93% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LAX 13:22 → IAD 21:21UA 1164 54m Dulles IAD 22:15 → CMH 23:42UA 4414 · flown by GoJet 7h 20m 61% 37%
UnitedDetails → LAX 10:45 → ORD 17:04UA 2113 52m Chicago ORD 17:56 → CMH 20:20UA 1278 6h 35m 40% 19%
UnitedDetails → LAX 14:26 → ORD 20:40UA 2487 50m Chicago ORD 21:30 → CMH 23:59UA 1492 6h 33m 34% 17%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON