Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via O'Hare, leaving 14:26, is the safest bet: 12% chance of reaching Hebron on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 27% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 458 Delta Flight history →	LAX 22:45	CVG 05:59	22%	4%	0.8%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	LAX 00:00 → BOS 08:36AA 2453	3h 19m Boston	BOS 11:55 → CVG 14:30AA 4760 · flown by Republic	11h 30m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	LAX 11:50 → DTW 19:14DL 802	2h 49m Detroit	DTW 22:03 → CVG 23:24DL 5478 · flown by Endeavor	8h 34m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	LAX 05:30 → DTW 12:56DL 2399	1h 24m Detroit	DTW 14:20 → CVG 15:40DL 5446 · flown by Endeavor	7h 10m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906	1h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:40 → CVG 15:03DL 2273	6h 28m	95%	81%
American Details →	LAX 00:41 → DFW 05:51AA 971	1h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:38 → CVG 10:56AA 2610	7h 15m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413	3h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 20:20 → CVG 23:11DL 1469	8h 56m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792	3h 58m Minneapolis	MSP 15:50 → CVG 18:37DL 703	9h 22m	100%	78%
United Details →	LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491	1h 26m Houston	IAH 07:38 → CVG 11:20UA 6312 · flown by Mesa	7h 29m	94%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	LAX 13:15 → ATL 20:56DL 395	52m Atlanta	ATL 21:48 → CVG 23:15DL 1858	7h 00m	60%	45%
American Details →	LAX 09:29 → ORD 15:37AA 2998	53m Chicago	ORD 16:30 → CVG 18:54AA 4507 · flown by Republic	6h 25m	58%	32%
United Details →	LAX 14:26 → ORD 20:40UA 2487	49m Chicago	ORD 21:29 → CVG 23:46UA 1223	6h 20m	27%	12%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON