Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 392 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 392 LAX 07:30 → DCA 15:32 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 591 LAX 12:26 → DCA 20:29 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 392 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:30	DCA 15:32	15%	5%	0.9%	81%
AA 3283 American Flight history →	LAX 08:23	DCA 16:29	22%	8%	0.8%	83%
AS 6 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 11:48	DCA 20:00	32%	7%	0.9%	78%worse than usual
AA 591 American Flight history →	LAX 12:26	DCA 20:29	33%	10%	0.9%	78%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	LAX 00:41 → DFW 05:51AA 971	1h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:02 → DCA 10:59AA 1623	7h 18m	86%	74%
United Details →	LAX 05:32 → ORD 11:50UA 580	55m Chicago	ORD 12:45 → DCA 15:52UA 752	7h 20m	93%	68%
Delta Details →	LAX 08:05 → MSP 13:42DL 799	55m Minneapolis	MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963	7h 04m	84%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON