Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 23 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4081 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–45%.

Safest bet that day WN 4081 LAX 06:25 → DEN 09:50 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2470 LAX 18:04 → DEN 21:26 · 45% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4081 Southwest	LAX 06:25	DEN 09:50	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 652 United	LAX 04:58	DEN 08:22	10%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 703 United Flight history →	LAX 07:00	DEN 10:29	10%	5%	0.6%	90%
F9 3156 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 06:30	DEN 10:03	12%	5%	0.7%	90%
UA 1912 United Flight history →	LAX 08:47	DEN 12:13	15%	5%	0.6%	91%
DL 2148 Delta Flight history →	LAX 08:00	DEN 11:28	15%	4%	0.8%	83%
AA 6376 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 07:02	DEN 10:24	15%	7%	0.6%	95%worse than usual
WN 2331 Southwest	LAX 08:47	DEN 12:08	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2061 United Flight history →	LAX 10:55	DEN 14:27	19%	8%	0.6%	91%
AA 6517 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 20:26	DEN 23:48	25%	9%	0.7%	82%
UA 2610 United Flight history →	LAX 18:45	DEN 22:15	27%	9%	0.6%	91%worse than usual
UA 1652 United	LAX 17:47	DEN 21:28	29%	12%	0.6%	no record
F9 4346 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 11:22	DEN 14:55	30%	11%	0.8%	80%worse than usual
DL 1049 Delta Flight history →	LAX 20:37	DEN 23:53	31%	9%	0.8%	88%worse than usual
UA 360 United Flight history →	LAX 12:46	DEN 16:16	33%	11%	0.6%	90%worse than usual
UA 2146 United Flight history →	LAX 16:15	DEN 19:45	33%	13%	0.6%	79%worse than usual
OO 4948 SkyWest	LAX 14:03	DEN 17:24	35%	14%	0.7%	no record
WN 3115 Southwest	LAX 21:42	DEN 01:04	37%	9%	0.6%	no record
F9 2342 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 14:19	DEN 17:51	39%	16%	0.8%	70%
UA 2758 United Flight history →	LAX 14:30	DEN 18:00	40%	15%	0.6%	73%worse than usual
WN 1701 Southwest	LAX 15:59	DEN 19:31	40%	12%	0.6%	no record
DL 2176 Delta Flight history →	LAX 14:53	DEN 18:18	42%	11%	0.9%	65%
WN 2470 Southwest	LAX 18:04	DEN 21:26	45%	13%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON