Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 21 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2811 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 2811 LAX 06:00 → DFW 11:15 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 9781 LAX 13:13 → DFW 18:09 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2811 American Flight history →	LAX 06:00	DFW 11:15	11%	5%	1.1%	87%
DL 521 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:35	DFW 12:48	12%	5%	1.0%	88%
AA 2746 American Flight history →	LAX 07:00	DFW 12:18	13%	6%	1.3%	87%
AA 2766 American Flight history →	LAX 07:52	DFW 13:07	17%	7%	1.2%	84%
AA 971 American Flight history →	LAX 00:41	DFW 05:51	18%	7%	1.1%	85%
AA 941 American	LAX 01:13	DFW 06:29	21%	8%	1.1%	no record
DL 8838 Delta	LAX 09:52	DFW 14:54	23%	7%	0.8%	no record
F9 2274 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 01:11	DFW 06:24	24%	10%	1.4%	82%
DL 420 Delta Flight history →	LAX 18:53	DFW 23:59	24%	9%	0.8%	82%
F9 4964 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 08:47	DFW 14:03	25%	9%	1.4%	75%
DL 948 Delta Flight history →	LAX 13:50	DFW 19:04	25%	8%	0.8%	86%worse than usual
AA 1047 American Flight history →	LAX 09:05	DFW 14:20	25%	9%	1.0%	65%
AA 1154 American	LAX 10:51	DFW 16:06	30%	11%	1.0%	no record
AA 1760 American	LAX 12:12	DFW 17:27	33%	13%	1.0%	no record
F9 2564 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 16:12	DFW 21:26	33%	13%	1.3%	72%
AA 1241 American	LAX 16:32	DFW 21:48	34%	15%	1.0%	no record
AA 1504 American Flight history →	LAX 18:54	DFW 00:00	34%	11%	1.1%	80%worse than usual
AA 1657 American Flight history →	LAX 15:19	DFW 20:38	35%	14%	1.0%	57%
AA 500 American	LAX 14:03	DFW 19:24	35%	13%	1.0%	no record
AA 2024 American Flight history →	LAX 17:50	DFW 23:03	36%	14%	1.0%	54%
AA 9781 American	LAX 13:13	DFW 18:09	39%	13%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON