Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, OO 4891 at 12:45, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OO 4891 SkyWest	LAX 12:45	DSM 18:13	22%	8%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 2 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAX 05:30 → DTW 12:56DL 2399	3h 44m Detroit	DTW 16:40 → DSM 17:34DL 5345 · flown by Endeavor	10h 04m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792	1h 28m Minneapolis	MSP 13:20 → DSM 14:37DL 5490 · flown by Endeavor	6h 22m	97%	81%
American Details →	LAX 00:08 → PHL 08:34AA 2010	2h 04m Philadelphia	PHL 10:38 → DSM 12:35AA 5478 · flown by PSA	10h 27m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	LAX 09:45 → DTW 17:08DL 494	3h 13m Detroit	DTW 20:21 → DSM 21:15DL 5087 · flown by Endeavor	9h 30m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 16:37 → DSM 17:52DL 2086	9h 52m	98%	76%
United Details →	LAX 07:00 → DEN 10:29UA 703	3h 01m Denver	DEN 13:30 → DSM 16:15UA 1311	7h 15m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413	3h 29m Minneapolis	MSP 20:19 → DSM 21:36DL 5253 · flown by Endeavor	8h 21m	99%	74%
Delta Details →	LAX 08:05 → MSP 13:42DL 799	2h 19m Minneapolis	MSP 16:01 → DSM 17:18DL 4913 · flown by Endeavor	7h 13m	96%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	LAX 08:05 → ATL 15:41DL 782	56m Atlanta	ATL 16:37 → DSM 17:52DL 2086	7h 47m	73%	56%
American Details →	LAX 13:58 → CLT 21:55AA 1988	48m Charlotte	CLT 22:43 → DSM 00:02 +1AA 3020	8h 04m	57%	37%
American Details →	LAX 16:39 → PHX 18:10AA 2032	51m Phoenix	PHX 19:01 → DSM 23:59AA 4950 · flown by SkyWest	5h 20m	48%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON