Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3811 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 3811 LAX 06:05 → ELP 09:10 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3673 LAX 20:55 → ELP 00:01 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3811 Southwest	LAX 06:05	ELP 09:10	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
OO 6190 SkyWest	LAX 07:27	ELP 10:39	14%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 6453 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 14:40	ELP 17:50	20%	9%	0.6%	94%worse than usual
AA 4905 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 20:05	ELP 23:09	23%	10%	0.6%	78%
WN 3673 Southwest	LAX 20:55	ELP 00:01	39%	10%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON