Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Portland, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Kalispell on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kalispell on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kalispell is 1 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LAX 07:00 → PDX 09:21AS 668	1h 45m Portland	PDX 11:06 → FCA 13:30AS 2044 · flown by Horizon	5h 30m	97%	88%
Alaska Details →	LAX 08:10 → SEA 10:54AS 495	2h 39m Seattle	SEA 13:33 → FCA 15:54AS 2105 · flown by Horizon	6h 44m	100%	79%
Alaska Details →	LAX 16:00 → SEA 18:34AS 585	3h 01m Seattle	SEA 21:35 → FCA 23:59AS 2121 · flown by Horizon	6h 59m	99%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LAX 17:55 → SEA 20:30AS 698	1h 05m Seattle	SEA 21:35 → FCA 23:59AS 2121 · flown by Horizon	5h 04m	72%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON