Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 480 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–37%.

Safest bet that day DL 480 LAX 08:30 → HNL 11:18 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest WN 1056 LAX 18:30 → HNL 21:45 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 480 Delta Flight history →	LAX 08:30	HNL 11:18	16%	4%	0.6%	84%
AS 801 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 07:00	HNL 09:54	17%	5%	1.0%	83%
UA 1158 United Flight history →	LAX 09:05	HNL 11:53	17%	6%	0.6%	89%
AA 31 American Flight history →	LAX 09:20	HNL 12:28	19%	6%	0.6%	84%
UA 1224 United Flight history →	LAX 13:13	HNL 16:17	20%	9%	0.6%	84%
UA 1170 United Flight history →	LAX 17:05	HNL 19:44	23%	9%	0.5%	82%
DL 465 Delta Flight history →	LAX 13:55	HNL 16:43	23%	6%	0.5%	76%
DL 443 Delta Flight history →	LAX 18:37	HNL 21:22	24%	7%	0.6%	84%
AS 556 Alaska	LAX 09:02	HNL 12:07	27%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 143 American Flight history →	LAX 15:03	HNL 18:00	28%	9%	0.6%	80%
AS 809 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 18:00	HNL 20:53	29%	10%	0.9%	74%
AA 297 American Flight history →	LAX 17:54	HNL 20:41	32%	10%	0.6%	74%
AS 888 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 20:31	HNL 23:44	33%	11%	0.9%	68%
AS 803 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 10:05	HNL 12:58	35%	7%	1.1%	54%
WN 1056 Southwest	LAX 18:30	HNL 21:45	37%	10%	0.5%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	LAX 08:02 → KOA 10:44AS 560	1h 29m Kailua/Kona	KOA 12:13 → HNL 13:15AS 1087	8h 13m	96%	74%
Alaska Details →	LAX 08:30 → OGG 11:11AS 933	1h 51m Kahului	OGG 13:02 → HNL 13:56AS 1105	8h 26m	97%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON