Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 15–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2268 LAX 08:15 → IAD 16:26 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest UA 2372 LAX 22:35 → IAD 06:46 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2268 United Flight history →	LAX 08:15	IAD 16:26	15%	4%	0.7%	84%
UA 418 United Flight history →	LAX 23:36	IAD 07:39	16%	4%	0.7%	93%
UA 2667 United Flight history →	LAX 10:39	IAD 18:48	16%	5%	0.7%	90%
UA 2282 United Flight history →	LAX 21:34	IAD 05:48	16%	4%	0.7%	89%
UA 1506 United	LAX 16:43	IAD 00:58	18%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 1164 United Flight history →	LAX 13:22	IAD 21:21	19%	6%	0.7%	94%worse than usual
UA 2372 United Flight history →	LAX 22:35	IAD 06:46	21%	4%	0.7%	100%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAX 05:32 → ORD 11:50UA 580	1h 01m Chicago	ORD 12:51 → IAD 15:46UA 1128	7h 14m	93%	69%
United Details →	LAX 01:06 → EWR 08:59UA 2303	58m Newark	EWR 09:57 → IAD 11:15UA 1618	7h 09m	76%	63%
Frontier Details →	LAX 01:11 → DFW 06:24F9 2274	1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:26 → IAD 11:28F9 3208	7h 17m	78%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON