Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 654 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 654 LAX 05:45 → IAH 11:12 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 1287 LAX 18:35 → IAH 23:59 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 654 United Flight history →	LAX 05:45	IAH 11:12	7%	3%	0.8%	96%
UA 1416 United Flight history →	LAX 08:10	IAH 13:40	13%	5%	0.7%	91%
UA 491 United Flight history →	LAX 00:51	IAH 06:12	14%	4%	0.9%	92%
F9 1756 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 06:09	IAH 11:30	16%	8%	0.9%	70%
UA 277 United Flight history →	LAX 10:10	IAH 15:40	16%	6%	0.7%	88%
UA 1680 United Flight history →	LAX 19:18	IAH 00:36	18%	7%	0.7%	87%
DL 1143 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:40	IAH 15:04	18%	5%	0.7%	86%
UA 1084 United	LAX 12:58	IAH 18:23	19%	9%	0.7%	no record
UA 1477 United	LAX 11:44	IAH 17:09	20%	9%	0.7%	no record
UA 2765 United	LAX 15:26	IAH 20:47	21%	9%	0.7%	no record
UA 2377 United Flight history →	LAX 16:42	IAH 22:16	21%	8%	0.7%	87%
OO 4998 SkyWest	LAX 14:33	IAH 20:03	23%	10%	0.6%	no record
DL 1287 Delta Flight history →	LAX 18:35	IAH 23:59	24%	9%	0.8%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON