Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 861 at 09:05 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28–36%.

Safest bet that day DL 861 LAX 09:05 → IND 16:10 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 635 LAX 16:54 → IND 23:59 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 861 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:05	IND 16:10	16%	4%	0.6%	92%
AA 1899 American Flight history →	LAX 10:37	IND 17:50	28%	8%	0.7%	74%
AA 635 American Flight history →	LAX 16:54	IND 23:59	36%	10%	0.6%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON