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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 31 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: B6 124 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–34%.

Safest bet that day B6 124 LAX 06:00 → JFK 14:30 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 2459 LAX 15:05 → JFK 23:22 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.

B6 124 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 06:00 JFK 14:30 11% 3% 1.2% 93%
DL 979 Delta Flight history → LAX 07:00 JFK 15:38 11% 4% 0.9% 90%
AA 118 American Flight history → LAX 06:00 JFK 14:37 12% 5% 1.0% 85%
AA 2 American Flight history → LAX 07:00 JFK 15:39 13% 5% 1.0% 86%
B6 524 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 07:27 JFK 15:59 16% 5% 1.1% 80%
DL 938 Delta Flight history → LAX 07:43 JFK 15:48 17% 4% 0.9% 79%
DL 915 Delta Flight history → LAX 00:14 JFK 08:20 19% 4% 0.9% 86%
DL 960 Delta Flight history → LAX 21:00 JFK 05:16 22% 7% 1.0% 86%
AA 10 American Flight history → LAX 21:27 JFK 06:03 23% 9% 1.2% 85%
B6 1224 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 00:01 JFK 08:21 23% 5% 1.2% 68%
AA 307 American Flight history → LAX 08:30 JFK 17:09 25% 8% 1.0% 76%
B6 924 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 15:20 JFK 23:57 26% 9% 1.2% 81%
B6 424 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 09:43 JFK 18:19 27% 8% 1.2% 80%
B6 1524 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 20:47 JFK 05:22 27% 11% 1.6% 83%worse than usual
B6 324 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 11:55 JFK 20:30 28% 10% 1.2% 77%
DL 991 Delta Flight history → LAX 15:31 JFK 23:35 29% 8% 0.9% 78%
DL 934 Delta Flight history → LAX 09:06 JFK 17:06 29% 6% 0.9% 89%worse than usual
B6 624 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 14:30 JFK 23:10 29% 10% 1.1% 71%
DL 676 Delta Flight history → LAX 22:45 JFK 07:03 29% 5% 1.0% 81%
AA 28 American Flight history → LAX 15:15 JFK 23:54 30% 11% 1.0% 79%
B6 224 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 12:55 JFK 21:34 30% 10% 1.2% 82%worse than usual
AA 30 American Flight history → LAX 22:23 JFK 07:00 30% 9% 1.4% 70%
AA 238 American Flight history → LAX 10:11 JFK 18:52 33% 11% 1.0% 71%
AA 32 American Flight history → LAX 11:05 JFK 19:46 33% 13% 1.0% 74%
B6 1024 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 22:25 JFK 07:00 34% 11% 1.6% 82%worse than usual
DL 972 Delta Flight history → LAX 11:18 JFK 19:21 34% 9% 0.9% 67%
DL 951 Delta Flight history → LAX 13:17 JFK 21:22 34% 10% 0.8% 74%
AA 4 American Flight history → LAX 13:00 JFK 21:34 34% 14% 1.0% 76%
DL 958 Delta Flight history → LAX 10:08 JFK 18:06 34% 7% 0.9% 83%worse than usual
AA 274 American Flight history → LAX 11:55 JFK 20:36 35% 13% 1.0% 60%
AA 2459 American LAX 15:05 JFK 23:22 35% 12% 1.0% no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → LAX 15:22 → MSP 20:59DL 2198 2h 16m Minneapolis MSP 23:15 → JFK 01:32 +1DL 2692 7h 10m 97% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON