Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 28 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1708 at 05:11 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–53%.

Safest bet that day WN 1708 LAX 05:11 → LAS 06:24 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2785 LAX 20:15 → LAS 21:33 · 53% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1708 Southwest	LAX 05:11	LAS 06:24	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 2253 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:15	LAS 08:27	14%	4%	0.6%	95%
AA 6425 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 08:10	LAS 09:33	16%	6%	0.8%	97%worse than usual
WN 2061 Southwest	LAX 08:18	LAS 09:31	17%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1006 United Flight history →	LAX 08:17	LAS 09:32	17%	4%	0.6%	91%
DL 1696 Delta Flight history →	LAX 11:00	LAS 12:12	29%	6%	0.6%	77%
UA 2403 United	LAX 13:56	LAS 15:25	30%	13%	0.6%	no record
UA 2741 United Flight history →	LAX 13:12	LAS 14:34	33%	11%	0.6%	83%worse than usual
OO 6511 SkyWest	LAX 15:48	LAS 17:03	33%	12%	0.8%	no record
UA 1546 United Flight history →	LAX 22:59	LAS 00:21	34%	12%	0.6%	85%worse than usual
WN 1572 Southwest	LAX 10:08	LAS 11:21	34%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 2120 Delta Flight history →	LAX 15:32	LAS 16:41	35%	11%	0.6%	69%
OO 718 SkyWest	LAX 16:41	LAS 17:56	35%	12%	0.8%	no record
F9 3292 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 12:07	LAS 13:29	36%	12%	0.9%	80%worse than usual
DL 2653 Delta Flight history →	LAX 21:25	LAS 22:45	37%	12%	0.7%	79%worse than usual
DL 8836 Delta	LAX 17:02	LAS 18:15	39%	13%	0.7%	no record
UA 679 United Flight history →	LAX 18:59	LAS 20:21	39%	13%	0.6%	81%worse than usual
F9 2264 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 21:58	LAS 23:18	41%	19%	0.9%	66%
F9 1184 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 14:38	LAS 15:58	41%	18%	0.9%	78%worse than usual
WN 1955 Southwest	LAX 12:03	LAS 13:22	42%	9%	0.6%	no record
DL 2202 Delta Flight history →	LAX 19:55	LAS 21:04	43%	12%	0.7%	74%worse than usual
AA 2529 American Flight history →	LAX 12:06	LAS 13:27	44%	14%	0.6%	57%
AA 1522 American	LAX 21:10	LAS 22:33	46%	19%	0.8%	no record
WN 4555 Southwest	LAX 14:50	LAS 16:03	49%	14%	0.6%	no record
WN 2064 Southwest	LAX 19:25	LAS 20:44	49%	17%	0.6%	no record
WN 2485 Southwest	LAX 22:34	LAS 23:52	49%	15%	0.6%	no record
WN 9007 Southwest	LAX 17:05	LAS 18:20	52%	17%	0.6%	no record
AA 2785 American Flight history →	LAX 20:15	LAS 21:33	53%	20%	0.7%	72%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON