tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Bush, leaving 00:51, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 42% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491 1h 48m Houston IAH 08:00 → LGA 12:31UA 1143 8h 40m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413 3h 08m Minneapolis MSP 19:58 → LGA 23:40DL 2733 9h 25m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:00 → BOS 08:36AA 2453 3h 34m Boston BOS 12:10 → LGA 13:29AA 1461 10h 29m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:41 → DFW 05:51AA 971 1h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:40 → LGA 12:13AA 1609 8h 32m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792 1h 08m Minneapolis MSP 13:00 → LGA 16:49DL 2756 7h 34m 95% 78%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:50 → DTW 19:14DL 802 2h 36m Detroit DTW 21:50 → LGA 23:40DL 2603 8h 50m 96% 77%
DeltaDetails → LAX 10:45 → BOS 19:20DL 437 2h 40m Boston BOS 22:00 → LGA 23:23DL 5840 · flown by Republic 9h 38m 94% 76%
DeltaDetails → LAX 08:05 → MSP 13:42DL 799 1h 48m Minneapolis MSP 15:30 → LGA 19:18DL 2732 8h 13m 95% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LAX 07:00 → ORD 13:14UA 1941 46m Chicago ORD 14:00 → LGA 17:22UA 1821 7h 22m 48% 28%
UnitedDetails → LAX 12:50 → ORD 19:05UA 457 1h 04m Chicago ORD 20:09 → LGA 23:28UA 2827 7h 38m 56% 27%
UnitedDetails → LAX 10:45 → ORD 17:04UA 2113 53m Chicago ORD 17:57 → LGA 21:08UA 2458 7h 23m 42% 17%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON