Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 863 at 05:35 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 863 LAX 05:35 → MCI 10:54 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3674 LAX 20:00 → MCI 01:15 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 863 Southwest	LAX 05:35	MCI 10:54	6%	1%	1.2%	no record
UA 5426 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 10:10	MCI 15:45	14%	6%	1.2%	92%
DL 1517 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:35	MCI 14:50	15%	4%	1.0%	93%
DL 2243 Delta Flight history →	LAX 18:25	MCI 23:41	27%	8%	0.7%	85%worse than usual
WN 3674 Southwest	LAX 20:00	MCI 01:15	38%	12%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON