Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 637 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 637 LAX 06:30 → MIA 14:48 · 23% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 858 LAX 10:43 → MIA 18:59 · 47% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 637 American	LAX 06:30	MIA 14:48	23%	7%	4.7%	no record
AA 2777 American Flight history →	LAX 22:52	MIA 07:18	31%	8%	0.8%	91%worse than usual
AA 345 American Flight history →	LAX 08:00	MIA 16:19	31%	9%	4.0%	87%worse than usual
AA 778 American	LAX 20:57	MIA 05:12	35%	10%	0.8%	no record
DL 811 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:40	MIA 18:07	38%	12%	2.7%	77%worse than usual
AA 467 American	LAX 13:54	MIA 22:08	44%	16%	1.0%	no record
AA 858 American	LAX 10:43	MIA 18:59	47%	13%	1.1%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	LAX 00:41 → DFW 05:51AA 971	1h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:10 → MIA 11:11AA 3290	7h 30m	89%	65%
American Details →	LAX 20:41 → PHX 22:09AA 2293	1h 34m Phoenix	PHX 23:43 → MIA 07:19 +1AA 3224	7h 38m	80%	61%
American Details →	LAX 06:00 → DFW 11:15AA 2811	1h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:41 → MIA 16:42AA 2461	7h 42m	95%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON