Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1112 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 1112 LAX 06:20 → MSY 12:13 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 1739 LAX 11:05 → MSY 17:16 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1112 Delta Flight history →	LAX 06:20	MSY 12:13	9%	2%	0.8%	90%
DL 2096 Delta Flight history →	LAX 10:20	MSY 16:10	28%	6%	1.1%	75%
DL 2154 Delta Flight history →	LAX 18:00	MSY 23:46	28%	9%	1.1%	73%
WN 1739 Southwest	LAX 11:05	MSY 17:16	32%	8%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON