Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3625 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–43%.

Safest bet that day WN 3625 LAX 07:15 → OAK 08:41 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2518 LAX 18:20 → OAK 19:46 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3625 Southwest	LAX 07:15	OAK 08:41	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1045 Southwest	LAX 08:51	OAK 10:17	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 561 Southwest	LAX 10:51	OAK 12:17	24%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 3163 Southwest	LAX 15:25	OAK 16:51	32%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 2495 Southwest	LAX 16:50	OAK 18:16	37%	9%	0.5%	no record
WN 1267 Southwest	LAX 22:50	OAK 00:16	39%	9%	0.5%	no record
WN 2518 Southwest	LAX 18:20	OAK 19:46	43%	12%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON