tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: American via Phoenix, leaving 16:39, is the safest bet: 31% chance of reaching Oklahoma City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 43% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 6378 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 08:05 OKC 13:14 17% 6% 0.9% 97%worse than usual
AA 6385 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 17:30 OKC 22:37 21% 8% 0.7% 92%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oklahoma City is 2 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491 3h 34m Houston IAH 09:46 → OKC 11:22UA 4344 · flown by CommuteAir 8h 31m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → LAX 05:45 → IAH 11:12UA 654 3h 23m Houston IAH 14:35 → OKC 16:15UA 6189 · flown by Mesa 8h 30m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:41 → DFW 05:51AA 971 3h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:08 → OKC 10:20AA 1902 7h 39m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390 1h 40m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → OKC 16:22DL 2862 8h 22m 96% 73%
DeltaDetails → LAX 13:15 → ATL 20:56DL 395 1h 48m Atlanta ATL 22:44 → OKC 23:52DL 2423 8h 37m 91% 72%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413 1h 20m Minneapolis MSP 18:10 → OKC 20:15DL 3791 · flown by SkyWest 7h 00m 92% 71%
UnitedDetails → LAX 07:00 → DEN 10:29UA 703 2h 58m Denver DEN 13:27 → OKC 16:10UA 1656 7h 10m 99% 71%
UnitedDetails → LAX 10:10 → IAH 15:40UA 277 2h 32m Houston IAH 18:12 → OKC 19:53UA 5278 · flown by SkyWest 7h 43m 95% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LAX 16:15 → DEN 19:45UA 2146 57m Denver DEN 20:42 → OKC 23:29UA 4727 · flown by SkyWest 5h 14m 64% 43%
AmericanDetails → LAX 15:19 → DFW 20:38AA 1657 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:29 → OKC 22:33AA 1458 5h 14m 59% 31%
AmericanDetails → LAX 16:39 → PHX 18:10AA 2032 46m Phoenix PHX 18:56 → OKC 23:15AA 6320 · flown by SkyWest 4h 36m 43% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON