Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 24 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1315 at 05:35 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–49%.

Safest bet that day WN 1315 LAX 05:35 → PHX 07:06 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2293 LAX 20:41 → PHX 22:09 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1315 Southwest	LAX 05:35	PHX 07:06	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
AA 2712 American	LAX 06:28	PHX 08:03	11%	7%	0.8%	no record
WN 1051 Southwest	LAX 07:50	PHX 09:21	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
OO 5662 SkyWest	LAX 16:31	PHX 18:21	19%	8%	0.7%	no record
DL 3894 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 13:46	PHX 15:21	20%	9%	0.6%	88%
OO 5425 SkyWest	LAX 13:31	PHX 15:21	20%	10%	0.6%	no record
DL 4119 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 08:23	PHX 09:58	20%	7%	0.7%	85%
DL 4077 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 17:41	PHX 19:14	21%	8%	0.7%	88%
OO 5441 SkyWest	LAX 21:05	PHX 22:41	22%	10%	1.0%	no record
DL 3951 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 10:01	PHX 11:34	22%	9%	0.7%	86%
OO 5419 SkyWest	LAX 08:08	PHX 09:44	23%	9%	0.7%	no record
DL 3827 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 22:35	PHX 00:06	23%	9%	1.0%	89%worse than usual
WN 200 Southwest	LAX 11:20	PHX 12:51	29%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 374 United	LAX 19:15	PHX 20:47	31%	11%	0.7%	no record
OO 9923 SkyWest	LAX 12:42	PHX 13:48	31%	10%	0.6%	no record
AA 2388 American	LAX 10:28	PHX 11:59	33%	11%	0.7%	no record
WN 4796 Southwest	LAX 14:06	PHX 15:37	35%	10%	0.6%	no record
AA 1994 American Flight history →	LAX 13:10	PHX 14:40	39%	12%	0.7%	65%
F9 3606 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 20:44	PHX 22:22	41%	19%	1.5%	76%worse than usual
WN 2471 Southwest	LAX 17:55	PHX 19:27	41%	13%	0.7%	no record
WN 3451 Southwest	LAX 21:40	PHX 23:12	42%	16%	0.8%	no record
AA 2211 American	LAX 18:56	PHX 20:31	42%	16%	0.8%	no record
AA 2032 American Flight history →	LAX 16:39	PHX 18:10	45%	14%	0.7%	65%
AA 2293 American Flight history →	LAX 20:41	PHX 22:09	49%	16%	0.9%	74%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON