tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Bush, leaving 05:45, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Pittsburgh on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 37% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2039 United Flight history → LAX 09:00 PIT 16:51 12% 7% 0.6% 92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAX 10:39 → IAD 18:48UA 2667 3h 42m Dulles IAD 22:30 → PIT 23:36UA 3540 · flown by Republic 9h 57m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906 2h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → PIT 16:30DL 1188 7h 55m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → LAX 16:14 → SFO 17:42UA 2019 4h 00m San Francisco SFO 21:42 → PIT 05:52 +1UA 1341 10h 38m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → LAX 06:00 → JFK 14:37AA 118 2h 14m New York JFK 16:51 → PIT 18:38AA 4734 · flown by Republic 9h 38m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413 3h 01m Minneapolis MSP 19:51 → PIT 22:54DL 1134 8h 39m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → LAX 13:15 → ATL 20:56DL 395 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 23:04 → PIT 00:50 +1DL 1351 8h 35m 94% 81%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390 1h 48m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → PIT 17:08DL 1568 8h 08m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:40 → BOS 15:15DL 639 1h 00m Boston BOS 16:15 → PIT 18:23DL 5680 · flown by Republic 8h 43m 92% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LAX 13:58 → CLT 21:55AA 1988 52m Charlotte CLT 22:47 → PIT 00:16 +1AA 1962 7h 18m 63% 47%
UnitedDetails → LAX 10:45 → ORD 17:04UA 2113 1h 01m Chicago ORD 18:05 → PIT 20:51UA 1946 7h 06m 64% 33%
AmericanDetails → LAX 11:47 → ORD 18:06AA 2891 49m Chicago ORD 18:55 → PIT 21:31AA 1051 6h 44m 37% 16%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON